According to data released on Wednesday (November 15th), the monthly retail sales (PPI) rate in the United States recorded -0.1% in October, setting a new low since March this year. At the same time, the monthly PPI rate in the United States in October recorded -0.5%, the largest decline since April 2020. Retail sales in the United States decreased by 0.1% in October, the first decline in seven months, but this decline is unlikely to continue as the country enters the holiday shopping season. This led to gold diving after a slight increase at the beginning of the data release. After the release of these data, the US dollar index immediately fell to 104, hitting a new low since September 1st, and then rebounded, expanding to nearly 40 points, now at 104.40. At the same time, spot gold prices also experienced a short-term decline of $7, but then continued to decline, reaching the lowest point so far near 1955.
Due to the slower than expected decline in retail sales data in the United States in October, gold prices are facing some pressure. However, the easing of price pressure on the US economy has weakened the Federal Reserve's bet on further tightening policies, so broader demand for precious metals remains optimistic. Precious metals have benefited from the slow growth of overall inflation in the United States, while a significant drop in gasoline prices has led to a slowdown in inflation. The October weak inflation report in the United States indicates that the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve is sufficient to reduce inflation to 2%. Due to the weak Consumer Price Index (CPI) supporting risk appetite, the US dollar and bond yields have declined. The easing of consumer inflation has increased investors' confidence in the possibility of early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The lower than expected US CPI inflation report has provided a huge driving force and brought a perfect storm to gold. Behind the new round of gold's rise, the lower than expected US CPI inflation report has provided a huge driving force. This data not only changes market expectations, but also changes investors' views on the direction of Federal Reserve policy.
Technical analysis of gold: Based on the overall volatility of today's market, the bullish positions in the Asian and European markets have been further released, and those with short orders within the day have also been further relieved under the bearish US market data. From daily analysis, currently, gold prices have fallen from the high point of 1974, which happens to be near the short-term pressure level of the 20th day line. In the evening, gold is likely to form a certain degree of shock repair and choose a new direction in the later stage. The upward pressure port will remain in the 1975-78 area, but the probability of reaching it should not be high. We should first focus on the layout below 1970 and wait patiently for key points to enter;
The current support position for the lower moving average is between 1950 and 55. If it falls below here in 1955-50, then it will definitely accelerate to the low point before 1930-35. But it may not be tonight. If the price does not fall below tonight, it will definitely continue to be adjusted from 1950-55 to 1965-70. It is important to be careful not to chase orders indiscriminately. But I can clearly say that there is definitely a bearish trend at the moment, so going up is a good thing for those who do not have orders in their current positions, and they can continue to be short at high positions. The general trend is currently bearish.
The upper short-term focus is on the first line resistance from 1974 to 1976, while the lower short-term focus is on the first line support from 1952 to 1950
On Wednesday (November 15th), crude oil prices were trading near $77.5 per barrel in the US market. Oil prices took back gains on signs that tensions in the Middle East may ease and uncertainty over US oil inventories. Previously, due to weaker US CPI data than market expectations, the US dollar index plummeted to a low of more than two months, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised crude oil demand expectations, causing oil prices to hit a week high. Tuesday's rise was mainly due to the bullish outlook of OPEC+'s monthly report, but crude oil still needs more room for growth to continue its recovery, requiring a large amount of catalyst. It is expected that OPEC+will hold a meeting at the end of November to release its forecast for the first half of 2024, and there may be further supply cuts in the future. Although almost all major economies are expected to experience a slowdown in economic growth, the International Energy Agency has raised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and the next two years. A day ago, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 and maintained a relatively high forecast for 2024. Due to the reduced cost of gasoline for Americans, consumer prices in the United States did not change in October, and the annual increase in potential inflation was the smallest in two years. Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in May, which could boost economic activity and oil demand. The expectation that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates next spring has led to the US dollar falling to a two-and-a-half month low against a basket of other currencies. A weak US dollar can boost oil demand by making crude oil prices cheaper for buyers using other currencies. There will be more news about US crude oil inventories later today, and investors need to pay more attention.
Technical analysis of crude oil; Yesterday, crude oil rose first and then fell, with the daily line closing at a small negative cross K-line. In partial consolidation and correction, it continued the previous double positive rebound and surged to 79.70. In the end of the day, it was under pressure to take back the upward space and hit a low point within the day, with high and low points concentrated in the seesaw and volatile market during the US market period. There is no strong unilateral guidance. The daily line continues to oscillate in the neutral region. The 4-hour chart yesterday relied on the medium rail system to first increase and then decrease, with a single positive pull up and then a single negative rebound. It is difficult to determine the short-term direction continuation of this K-line pattern, and for the time being, it is only seen as a volatile market that is undergoing market washing. Structurally, it is still above the support of the medium track, and the low point has not yet broken. But the 4-hour trend is still in a rebound correction in the downward trend, approaching the top to bottom transition point yesterday and also at the 270 unit moving average pressure of the hourly chart. The tail plate is under pressure. Today's bullish market continues to be uncertain, so put the operating time behind the European market. This place is so empty that there are changes. It remains to be confirmed whether it will continue to decline after rebounding and correcting, or whether it will rebound to recover lost ground and form a reversal. The operation should also be based on the on-site situation.
The upper short-term focus is on the 78.0-77.8 line of resistance,
Below, short-term focus on 75.0-75.2 frontline support.
