Last Friday (December 8th), after stronger than expected US employment data, traders reduced their bets on US interest rate cuts starting in March, stimulating a rebound in the US dollar. International spot gold fell 1.4% and closed at $2000.49 per ounce.
Last Friday, the US Department of Labor released data showing that non farm employment increased by 199000 jobs in November, the unemployment rate dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%, the labor participation rate increased from 62.7% to 62.8%, and the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month on month; Up 4.0% year-on-year. The data indicates strong fundamentals in the labor market, suggesting that the financial market's expectation of interest rate cuts early next year may be too early. The data results were quite unexpected for investors, and as a result, bearish pressure hit the gold price, causing it to plummet below the integer level of $2000. However, the highly anticipated employment report released by the US Department of Labor on Friday did not change the view that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle has ended. Because based on specific data, the labor market is still cooling down. The number of new job opportunities in September was 35000 less than previously expected. The employment growth rate in November was 240000 jobs lower than the monthly average of the past year. Moreover, the year-on-year salary increase in November was only mild. As a result, gold has slightly pulled back from its lowest point on Friday to close above $2000. Next, central banks around the world will once again become the focus this week, and the Federal Open Market Committee will make interest rate decisions on Wednesday. Prior to this, important data reflecting US inflation will also be released. The market expects the Federal Reserve to remain stagnant this month, but if there is any disclosure of extending the duration of maintaining high interest rates or other hawkish information at the meeting, and previous inflation data remains highly sticky, then gold is bound to continue to be under pressure and further decline. If the situation is opposite, gold is expected to experience a low-level rebound trend.
On a technical level, a negative line was recorded on the daily chart, and after three consecutive trading days of bottom consolidation, gold prices broke through and fell, further exacerbating the reversal of the K-line pattern at the top of the daily chart. Currently, gold prices are gradually forming a retracement trend towards the technical support level of the daily 20 day moving average, intensifying the downward crossing pattern of the daily moving average short cycle average. The current gold price is trending towards a downward trajectory through the Bollinger Bands channel, with the technical indicator MACD forming a dead cross and the relative strength index RSI also starting to decline, indicating a short-term bearish guidance reference. Pay attention to the horizontal support in 1980 and 1940 below. Only when the closing price stabilizes above the 2040 index may it be possible to reverse the recent decline.
