On Wednesday, December 6th, spot gold rose 0.4% and closed at $2027.48 per ounce.
The ADP national employment report released by the United States on Wednesday showed that private employment increased by 103000 jobs in November. The downward revision of October readings increased by 106000, while the previous value increased by 113000. Economists interviewed by Reuters had previously predicted that private employment would increase by 130000 in November. The number of new jobs added by ADP, also known as small non farm payroll, fell short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. The data once caused a decline in US bond yields, and gold also took this opportunity to slightly stop the decline and remain stable at a critical level. From the perspective of fundamentals and expectations, the downward trend of US bond rates and the upward trend of gold prices will still be the main logic for 2024. However, on the one hand, the significant increase in gold prices in this round has partially reflected the aforementioned bullish factors in advance and has already emerged from a downward trend. On the other hand, it is expected that the Federal Reserve still does not want market expectations to anchor. There is a risk that the Federal Reserve will correct market expectations again through forward-looking guidance in the future. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a short-term slight rebound in the interest rates of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds after the rapid decline in this round. Therefore, it is expected that gold will still face the test of range consolidation. The next highlight will fall on Friday's non farm payroll data, and the market hopes that the data can provide clear clues to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Therefore, the volatility of gold prices may still be limited before the release of US non farm payroll data on Friday.
On a technical level, on the daily chart, the gold price stopped falling and rebounded yesterday, remaining stable at the 2020 US dollar level. However, it is still hindered by pressure from the 5-day moving average, indicating that there is still a risk of falling back. However, given that the trend is running above the medium track and the Bollinger Bands are still leaning upwards, this suggests that the current development prospects of strong volatility have not fundamentally changed. However, if the rebound cannot return above the 2075 US dollar and remain stable at that level, there is still a risk of further volatility and falling to lower levels. Recently, the upper level has been paying attention to resistance around $2034 and $2041 respectively; Follow the support around the 2020 and 2010 US dollars below in sequence.
