On Monday (November 27), the gold price rose on Monday, boosted by the decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds and the weakness of the US dollar. Due to the increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve has completed a rate hike and the weakness of the US dollar, it has proven to be beneficial for gold. Gold prices have benefited from this trend, while also showing signs of a global economic slowdown.
Market news analysis
After a strong rebound from technical support in mid November, gold continued to hold strong buying, with gold prices at their peak in the new trading week, reaching a new six month high,
As investors increase their bets on the Fed ending its current interest rate hike cycle, the market is conducting deeper tests on gold bidding, despite overly enthusiastic bidders continuing to face frequent setbacks.
Although slowing inflation is enough to cool down the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the market continues to digest the results of rate cuts sooner rather than later. The Federal Reserve remains committed to a policy stance of "long-term upward movement", at least until economic data deteriorates enough to force a shift in its chart.
Meanwhile, the buying of gold has received some support as the money market expects a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the next two consecutive policy maker meetings.
As the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has become a widely recognized expectation in the market, the debate in the spot gold market has shifted to the question of when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Gold investors will closely monitor the key points of conversation among Federal Reserve officials this week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will attend a fireside talk later this week at Spearman College in Atlanta on Friday afternoon, where the Fed Chairman will discuss "ways to guide economic liquidity.".
Considering recent performance, gold prices have risen by over 8% since October, firmly breaking the 200 day simple moving average and breaking the psychological level of $2000 per ounce - these two technical signals enhance the constructive bias of the metal.
In order to strengthen the bullish argument and verify the potential for further upward momentum, it is necessary to clearly and decisively break through the 2010 USD/oz - the main resistance area that has been hindering the rise since the beginning of this year. Although clearing this obstacle may pose a challenge for bulls, a breakthrough could catalyze a rebound to $2060 per ounce, followed by a May high of $2085 per ounce.
If the gold price falls from its current position, the asset may tend towards support levels of $1980 to $1975 per ounce. When a bearish reversal occurs, prices may stabilize in the region, but falling below this level may lead to a pullback to the 200 day simple moving average near the $1950/ounce mark. Below this threshold, attention may refocus on $1937 per ounce.
Strategists at Societe Generale in France predict that gold will continue to rebound, stating that, The amount on the retest card is $2070/ounce, and it is expected to retest the $2070/ounce chart level representing the highs of 2020 and 2022. Interestingly, this is also the upper limit of gold's evolution range over the past three years. Once this obstacle is overcome, gold will confirm a sustained upward trend. The next target is expected to be $2180/ounce and $2240/ounce. Last week's low of $1965/ounce was the first in recent times Layer support. "
Nick Cawley, senior strategist at DailyFX.com, said that closing above $2009 per ounce will open the door for a rebound to $2049 per ounce.
Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, said that trading in the gold market is in a "thin region". He pointed out that breaking through the historical high of around $2080 per ounce may ultimately push the price to $2130 per ounce, which is the basic Fibonacci level. However, he added that achieving this goal in the market does face some challenges. "Gold needs a strong driving force to achieve this bullish scenario. This could lead to issues," Kuptsikevich said, "The long-term outlook also indicates that gold will form a triple peak - a reversal pattern. However, its legitimacy is now being questioned in the rapid upward reversal since early October. Regardless, the dynamics of gold are expected to become the trend definition for the coming months, as we may see breakthroughs in long-term and psychologically important resistance levels, or the beginning of bear markets for months or even years."
[Focus on financial data and events on Tuesday (Beijing time)]
① 15:00 German December Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
② 22:00 US September FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate
③ 22:00 US September S&P/CS 20 major city housing price index annual rate
④ 23:00 US November Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index
⑤ 23:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for November in the United States
⑥ 23:00 Federal Reserve Director Waller delivers a speech
⑦ 23:45 Federal Reserve Director Bauman delivers a speech
⑧ API crude oil inventory for the week from 05:30 the next day to November 24th in the United States
