→ → Gold:
... There is a demand for structural adjustment due to the second rebound of gold, and as it is still within the downward channel, the probability of accelerating its rise is not high. Moreover, the correction of the US dollar index's oversold price, which coincides with the rebound of US bond yields, is not conducive to the strengthening of gold prices. Waiting for the low buying opportunities after the rebound in the day is the main focus, and continuing to pay attention to the changes in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. If the 4-hour level support does not break 1945, it is expected to rise again. The intraday pressure is around 1970, Breakthrough test channel pressure around 1990.
→ → USD:
... The US dollar index has rebounded from a sell-off and corrected its decline after testing long-term moving average support. Structurally, it still maintains box volatility. Before there are no new changes in fundamentals, it waits for opportunities to rebound and sell short, and continues to pay attention to whether the US bond yield resonates and weakens, leading to a downward trend in the US dollar.
→ → Euro to USD:
According to the latest forecast from the European Union, driven by slowing inflation and a strong job market, the eurozone economy will resume growth by the end of the year, with a growth rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter to avoid a recession. The economy will grow by 0.6% throughout the year, lower than the 0.8% predicted in September; The growth rates for 2024 and 2025 will reach 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, slightly optimistic than the European Central Bank's forecast. Further easing of inflation and maintaining elasticity in the labor market are expected to result in a slight rebound in economic growth. After breaking through the H4 level of the euro against the US dollar, the high level fluctuated, and the MACD energy bar and double line formed a contraction above the zero axis, almost forming a dead cross, and the exchange rate began to approach the 48 day long short boundary. The European Central Bank acknowledges that economic growth is weaker than expected, and the euro is likely to pull back.
→ → US WTI crude oil:
... US crude oil has hit its previous low again and is still in a bearish structure, with a dead cross in the moving average. Technically, there is no possibility of accelerating the downward trend, so we will maintain a bearish attitude in the short term. Secondly, we will continue to focus on changes in demand expectations. Even if US bond yields continue to decline, but interest rate hikes remain unchanged, demand concerns still exist. The 4-hour level channel supports around $74, The upward reverse pressure is around $78.
→ → GBP to USD:
According to the released data, the annual growth rate of UK CPI has decreased from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October. This is the lowest level in two years and also below the market consensus expectation of 4.8%. This is a significant decline in overall CPI, as evidenced by the year-on-year impact and energy price decline, confirming the downward trend of inflation. This may mean that the central bank is in a favorable position to start cutting interest rates in late 2024, but this largely depends on the strength of the labor market and economy. The GBP/USD H4 level weakened, as previously released data showed that inflation in the UK cooled more than expected in October, strengthening expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the middle of next year. The exchange rate is approaching the 48 day long short boundary, and the MACD energy column is shrinking downwards.
→ → USD vs JPY
The performance of the Japanese stock market this year, triggered by fund transfers, will continue for a considerable period of time and may continue until 2024. The funds entering the Japanese stock market this year reached a peak of approximately 93 billion US dollars. The current cash flow is only about 60% of the historical peak, which means that this trend may continue next year. Due to shareholder dividends and weak yen, the Japanese stock market is favored, and the true darling of global investors may be Japanese companies that are restructuring their supply chains and relocating manufacturing. The USD/JPY H4 level rebounded significantly, as the risk sentiment triggered by the stock market's rise weakened the safe haven appeal of the yen. In addition, Japan's GDP shrank more than expected in the third quarter compared to the previous month, which does not help the Bank of Japan further adjust its monetary policy in the near future
