On Monday (November 6th), as the US Treasury yield slightly rebounded, gold faced pressure and fell from above $1990 during the day. Although last week's weak expectations for non farm currencies led to an earlier Federal Reserve rate cut, gold prices did not seem excited about this. This week, gold will continue to track the situation in the Middle East, while multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, will appear this week. Gold prices fell on Monday, following a slight increase in US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech later this week to further clarify the interest rate outlook. Spot gold is currently down 0.3%, reaching a minimum of $1979.87 per ounce, after breaking a key level of $2000 last Friday.
The weak employment report raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may end its interest rate hike, pushing the US dollar to a six week low. Traders currently estimate that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in December is 95%, and the probability of the first policy easing as early as June next year is 86%. In the past two weeks, gold prices have been consolidating near the critical level of $1985, as the market has been somewhat over trending since the outbreak of the Israel Hamas war. Geopolitical risks seem to be weakening as there is currently no significant escalation seen. On the macro level, after weaker than expected US labor market data, real yields and the US dollar have recently declined. In stark contrast to the weakening of geopolitical risks, these factors are all bullish factors for gold, leading to a dilemma for this precious metal. This week's data is quite blank, with only Thursday's US unemployment benefit application and Friday's University of Michigan consumer confidence index worth paying special attention to. The market may be concerned about the events of the past week, and given the recent weak labor market data, the market will be eager to see the US initial jobless claims released on Thursday. More weakness should support the upward trend of gold, while stronger data may lead to a pullback. In addition, investors will look for clues to the Fed's interest rate path, with at least nine Fed members giving speeches this week, including Powell's speech on November 9th.
Technical analysis of gold: In terms of gold trend, after several roller coasters last week, it was reorganized repeatedly in the 1970/1992 range. On Friday, stimulated by non agricultural data, it quickly broke through a wave of inertia and stretched to the first line of 2004, once again under pressure and falling back. In the evening, it hit the lowest point near 1986 and then stabilized again to maintain a repeated trend. Although the data was weak, gold failed to break a new high again, This indicates that the market's acceptance of the current high priced gold has gradually declined, and the geopolitical risk aversion sentiment is gradually digesting and landing. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a wave of high adjustment with the US dollar in the future;
From the gold 4-hour chart, there is no doubt that the gold 4-hour line has triple peaks, and the shadow line continues to close. This is also an ironclad fact. The rebound amplitude of the big negative line breaking through the positive line is currently on the way to breaking through the 50 moving average. Of course, the 50 moving average has made a significant turn, and the 4-hour chart is still running in a typical range; BOLL runs horizontally, KDJ continues to run between 20 and 80, and MACD continues to produce red kinetic energy columns, which are still running within the range;
From the 1-hour chart of gold, MACD continues to hit a green kinetic energy column, with a hyperbolic dead cross running and a MA5-MA10 dead cross. It is possible that gold prices will continue to run within the range. The high points of gold's 1-hour rebound have gradually decreased, and the gold's 1-hour triple top structure provides opportunities for short selling. Today's gold rebound is basically not strong, so just continue to be short selling. Short selling may only be the beginning. As long as gold does not stabilize and rise in the positive line, there is still a lot of room for gold short selling. The neckline resistance of the double top in the early gold period is around 1993, and the resistance is still effective. The rebound of gold in 1993 is an opportunity for high dry air.
The upper short-term focus is on the 1983 1985 line of resistance, while the lower short-term focus is on the 1960 1963 line of support.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Monday (November 6th) in the US market, crude oil prices were trading near $80.90 per barrel. Last Friday, crude oil plummeted again, completely reversing last Thursday's gains and continuing to break the low point after the geopolitical conflict. WTI crude oil closed down for the second consecutive week, with only $0.1 short of the $80 mark. Bulls were struggling to resist in key support areas, and have been fighting for more than 10 months of long and short positions since then, Crude oil has produced a very exaggerated long impact cross star on the annual line, which is an extremely chaotic stage for the crude oil market,. Over the past week, oil prices have experienced rapid fluctuations and fluctuations, with geopolitical and macroeconomic factors intertwined, making it difficult for investors to form a stable view on oil prices. The emergence of the Palestinian Israeli conflict has changed the pace of oil prices. Oil prices once rebounded nearly $10 from the low point in early October under the premium injected by the geopolitical conflict. As the geopolitical impact gradually weakened, oil prices gave back the rise caused by geographical factors. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made it clear on Friday that the United States was determined not to let the conflict appear on the second or third front. The risk of geopolitical runaway continues to decrease, but the uncertainty it brings is still affecting the market. The macro level changes of the past week have also made investors hesitate to judge the future market. Although the pressure of interest rate hikes has greatly eased, the concerns brought by economic data from China, the United States, and Europe that are less than expected have overshadowed the positive factors, and the weekly oil price finally fell significantly. Investors' judgment of oil prices is clearly in an unstable stage. Overall, the crude oil market has lost its upward drive and bulls are in a passive resistance stage. The market focus has shifted to focusing on the performance of the lower support areas. The probability of crude oil continuing to experience significant fluctuations is high, so pay attention to the rhythm and control risks.
Technical analysis of crude oil: Last week, the negative line of crude oil retreated and missed the middle track, accompanied by repeated twists and turns of sawing and shaking. After all, the final work of last Friday's week ended at a low level, and the weekly negative line broke the middle track, breaking the support of the support point. The daily line forms a Yin swallow Yang line, with slight weakness. Combined with previous repeated testing lows, it drives the moving average index to turn and suppress. The 4-hour chart is accompanied by repeated highs and lows, forming a platform resistance point between 83.50 and 83.80 above, which is also the high point of the downward step, while the low point is repeatedly explored. Inertia has broken, but its sustainability is not strong, and it is still in the process of consolidation and accumulation, considering the weekly and daily declines. Today, the short-term trend is relatively weak, while the high point of the downward channel of the steps is at 83.50. Below this level, the bearish mentality remains unchanged for the time being.
The upper short-term focus is on the 82.5-82.3 front line resistance, while the lower short-term focus is on the 79.0-79.3 front line support.
