On Monday (November 6), with the rise of the US treasury bond bond yield and the improvement of the emotional ceiling, the gold price consolidated on the key support. Following last Friday's sell-off, the US dollar index (DXY) is attempting to recover. IG customer sentiment indicates that retail traders are overwhelmingly bullish on gold and silver. After another attempt to break through the $2000/ounce mark last Friday was hindered, gold prices fell by about $15 in Monday's volatile trading. The yield of US treasury bond bonds rose slightly and risk appetite improved, thus limiting the rise of precious commodities.
Spot gold closed 0.73% lower on Monday at $1977.78 per ounce.
COMEX December gold futures settled 0.53% lower at $1988.6 per ounce.
The settlement price of Comex2 gold futures for the month ended 0.64% lower at $2006.7 per ounce.
Market News Analysis
The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond fell to a five week low on Friday, and the yield of the US 10-year treasury bond rose by about 8.5 basis points on Monday, reaching a record high of 4.6577%. The yield of 3/5-year treasury bond rose to 10 basis points, hitting a daily high of 4.7420% and 4.6070% respectively.
As US long-term bond yields rebounded, gold prices (XAU/USD) traded near $1985 per ounce on Monday, falling from their high of over $2000 per ounce last Friday. After the October employment report in the United States was released, gold is taking back some of the gains recorded last Friday, which showed a slowdown in both employment and wage growth. Although there has been some recent decline, the continued political tension in the Middle East has eased the downward trend of gold prices due to the refusal of the Israeli authorities to propose a ceasefire and the persistence of safe haven buying. Due to the weakening appeal of risk aversion, although the political situation in the Middle East has not yet been resolved, people seem increasingly optimistic that broader regional conflicts may be avoided.
Due to market participants currently believing that the US labor market is loose, this will lead Federal Reserve policymakers to advocate maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% by the end of 2023, leaving the US dollar still in a weak position. US export orders have decreased due to the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, resulting in a significant increase in the exchange rate. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari stated that there is significant uncertainty in the factors driving long-term yields higher and supported keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% on November 1st. In terms of the Fed's lineup, Lisa Cook stated on Monday that the Fed is "determined to achieve the 2% inflation target" and added that she hopes the current policy environment is sufficiently restrictive to achieve this task.
This week's economic data is not rich enough, but a series of speeches by Federal Reserve officials need to be taken seriously. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve directors Michal Barr and Christopher Waller will join regional Fed chairpersons Jeffrey Schmidt, Lorry Logan, and John Williams on a news line. On Wednesday, XAU/USD traders will listen to speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, followed by speeches by John Williams, Michael Barr, and Philip Jefferson.
Focus on financial data and events on Tuesday (Beijing time)
① 10:00 China October Trade Account
② 11:30 RBA Announces Interest Rate Decision
③ 14:45 Switzerland's quarterly adjusted unemployment rate in October
④ 15:00 German September quarterly adjusted industrial output monthly rate, UK October Halifax quarterly adjusted housing price index monthly rate
⑤ 18:00 Eurozone September PPI monthly rate
⑥ 21:30 US September Trade Account
⑦ 23:00 Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech
⑧ EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report at 01:00 the next day
⑨ The next day at 01:00, Federal Reserve Williams attended the discussion
⑩ The next day at 02:30, Federal Reserve Logan delivered a speech
