On Friday (November 3rd) in New York, the US Department of Labor released a closely watched 10 non farm employment report. As a result, the overall report was unexpectedly weak. After the report was released, the US dollar plummeted and gold prices surged by more than $10, breaking the 2000 mark.
Specific data shows that the US economy added 150000 jobs in October, with market expectations of 180000, compared to the previous value of 297000. Continuing the weak trend of the past year, this trend has gradually raised recruitment numbers to reflect the pre pandemic employment growth rate. In addition, the unemployment rate has slightly increased to 3.9% after hovering near historical lows for several consecutive months.
In addition, the salary growth in October slightly slowed down, increasing by 4.1% compared to the previous 12 months, reaching $34.00 per hour.
This year, the labor market in many industries has experienced a significant cooling, starting from the peak after the outbreak of the epidemic, when employers quickly created millions of job opportunities to meet pent up consumer demand. The employment growth rate in October reached the second lowest since 2020. Economists previously predicted that the economy created approximately 170000 jobs in October.
Justin Bloesch, an economics professor at Cornell University, said: "Compared to the past 30 years, this is still one of the most suitable labor markets for workers we have seen." "But this year is definitely not as hot as last year
The October report also saw a wave of strikes across the United States, including 45000 car workers striking in October and a 35000 decrease in manufacturing employment growth. Although in the long run, new contracts for automotive workers may push up wages in affected industries.
Despite the economic slowdown, the resilient job market is driving the economy to unexpected highs. In the recent quarter, the US economy grew rapidly at an annual growth rate of 4.9%, largely due to consumers' ability to continue spending. In recent months, wages have been continuously rising and inflation has also eased. This week's new data shows that productivity is growing at its fastest pace in three years.
As a result, Americans continued to open their wallets. Government data shows that spending on housing and transportation, as well as on cinemas, restaurants, and sports events, increased in August, helping to support a series of new service industry jobs.
Jared Bernstein, Chairman of the US Economic Commission, said: "If the labor market achieves full employment and inflationary pressures are alleviated, resulting in real wage growth - in an economy that consumes 70% of consumer spending, this will be a truly powerful force," the Council of Economic Advisers said in an interview this week.
This strong performance is in stark contrast to the widespread concern of economic recession at the beginning of the year. Many people, including the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, have expressed concern that the central bank's strong push to reduce inflation will lead to unemployment in various industries and may lead to an economic downturn. But this situation has not happened yet, at least not yet, despite the inflation rate dropping from last summer's high of 9.1% to September's 3.7%. This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the temporary maintenance of interest rates, while calling the elasticity of the job market an "unusual and very popular result in history".
From our perspective, the larger prospect is that we have a very strong economy and a strong labor market, "Powell said.
The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged this week, and officials are debating the economic path
In fact, recent data confirms that the labor market is still strong in many indicators. The gradually rising unemployment rate this year is still close to a long-term low. According to a job vacancy survey released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, job vacancies slightly increased to 9.6 million in September, which means there were approximately 1.6 job vacancies per unemployed worker. The data from the same report shows that the number of layoffs in September fell to a nine month low.
Cornell University economist Bloch said that future uncertainty may encourage employers to retain employees instead of layoffs. Employers don't know if things will prosper or slow down, "he said. Therefore, one of the best ways to deal with uncertainty is to retain existing employees
At the same time, the overall strong employment creation has been attracting workers to return to the labor market. The proportion of adults aged 25 to 54 participating in the labor market - an indicator closely monitored by policy makers and seen as a sign of the health of the labor market - has risen to its highest level in two decades.
As consumers continue to shift their spending from goods to services, the leisure and hotel industry, healthcare, and government have been driving recent employment growth. After several months of lag, the leisure and hotel industries finally returned to pre pandemic levels in September. Workers in these industries often have lower wages, but due to eager employers spending more money to attract workers, wage growth has reached historical levels.
There are signs that employers in other industries have much lower recruitment enthusiasm. Industries that are more sensitive to Fed rate hikes, such as manufacturing, construction, financial services, and information industries, including technology, have seen minimal job growth in recent months.
At 20:55 Beijing time, spot gold prices were quoted at 2003 US dollars per ounce.
