Analysis of Golden News: On Wednesday (November 1st), the growth rate of ADP employment in the United States in October recorded 113000, far below the expected 150000, but higher than the previous value of 89000. According to the ADP report, wages increased by 5.7% year-on-year in October, which is the lowest growth rate since October 2021. The salary growth rate of job changers is 8.4%, the smallest increase since July 2021. Before the Federal Reserve made a policy decision, the performance of gold prices remained relatively stable, and everyone's attention will be focused on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to obtain guidance on the interest rate path.
Before the Federal Reserve made a policy decision, the performance of gold prices remained relatively stable, and everyone's attention will be focused on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to obtain guidance on the interest rate path. Supported by the strong inflow of safe haven funds brought about by the worsening turmoil in the Middle East, gold prices fell after breaking the key level of $2000 last week, helping it record its largest monthly increase since March in October. Although interest rates are not expected to change, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's assessment of the US economy and clues to future monetary policy. At the same time, Asian manufacturers faced worsening pressure in October, as Chinese factory activity fell back into recession, casting a shadow over the recovery prospects of major exporters in the region who had already been squeezed by weak global demand and rising prices.
As widely expected by the market, the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The Federal Reserve also stated that the United States had "strong growth in economic activity in the third quarter." In its previous speech, the Federal Reserve pointed out that the economy was growing at a "steady pace".
Given the recent rise in US bond yields, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December is low, but there is a possibility of further interest rate hikes to continue reducing inflation. The tightening policy has partially achieved the Federal Reserve's goal, "said Damanick Dantes, a Global X portfolio strategist
At a press conference after the decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates next month. He stated that the idea that it would be difficult to raise interest rates after two meetings were suspended was wrong.
When asked if the Federal Reserve included an economic recession in their forecast, Powell said, "The answer is no." Powell pointed out recent strong economic data, including the fastest GDP growth rate in the past two years, and pointed out that current economic activity "does not indicate a recession in the short term.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors have digested a 73% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rate stability during its January meeting. A day ago, the market expected that there was only a 59% chance that interest rates would remain stable during this meeting.
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution and the announcement of the US Treasury Department's bond sales plan, bond yields fell, boosting the US stock market. The yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds fell below 4.8% on Wednesday after the market panicked when it exceeded 5% in October. At the same time, the yield of two-year treasury bond fell below 5%.
Earlier in the day, due to growing concerns about the rising debt burden of the US government, the US Treasury Department provided a detailed introduction to the scale of future bond issuance. Next week, the Treasury Department will auction $112 billion in debt, which is basically in line with Wall Street's expectations.
Investors absorbed other economic data released on Wednesday morning that showed signs of economic and labor market cooling. The ISM Manufacturing Index shows that the contraction in manufacturing activity in October exceeded expectations.
In terms of individual stocks, AMD's quarterly results exceeded Wall Street's expectations for revenue and earnings per share. The company expects annual sales to exceed $2 billion, with a stock price increase of over 8%.
Paycom's stock price fell more than 30% on Wednesday, after the company reported sales that were lower than Wall Street's expectations. Paycom currently expects revenue in the fourth quarter to be between $420 million and $425 million, lower than the expected $452 million.
Est é e Lauder's earnings and sales guidance were far below Wall Street's expectations, with the company predicting earnings per share for the next quarter to be between $0.48 and $0.58, lower than the widely expected $1.21 on Wall Street. The stock price has fallen by over 16%, approaching its lowest point in six years.
Technical analysis of gold: Gold first continued a wave of decline within the day, falling below the 1980 to 1975 line. During the European market period, the price fluctuated and rebounded, reaching a maximum of 1993 line decline. It is currently operating around 1978. From the performance of gold during the day, whether it will further climb out of new highs or fall below the key point of the platform in 1970 and then start a mid-term decline, all of which need to wait for the final verification of the market. We need to be patient and wait, the results will come soon. But if prices stabilize above 1970, then the mid-term trend of the daily line may have bottomed out. At that time, for the medium-term trend, gold is likely to embark on a long upward trend. If it falls below 1970, it temporarily declares the temporary end of gold's rise or is about to begin a correction;
Technically, gold is currently maintaining a high range of fluctuations in the daily trend, and after continuous declines, the K-line is gradually falling below the short-term moving average, showing signs of gradually weakening on the daily line. On the daily chart, the black three forces are controlling the market, and the SAR parabolic stop loss turning indicator also appears to be developing downward from the high point on the daily chart. The weekly K-line includes a bearish swallow pattern, and the rebound strength of the white market is significantly limited. In the short term, there may be strong resistance at the 2000 level. Since the current trend breaks the small range of 1990 to 2008 at the beginning of the week and breaks down, So the support below should consider the possibility of testing the possibility of crossing the support points of the daily track 1953 and the weekly MA5MA30 moving average 1945.
On the other hand, the 4-hour Bollinger band opened up, and last night's sharp drop did not physically break through the lower track and support the 1975-1970 region with the standard error band indicator lower track bonding. Tonight, before the price did not penetrate downwards, we still kept the hope of bulls and changed our thinking to follow up with bears in a timely manner after breaking through. On the indicators in the attached figure, the MACD fast slow line is dead cross, and the green momentum column is relatively weak. KDJ random indicators are glued in oversold areas to brew golden forks. STO and RSI indicators are developing at a low level simultaneously. On the 4-hour level, the K line starts to fall below the narrow range of shocks in the earlier period, and prices begin to bear the short-term average. It is likely that there is still room for further adjustment in the short-term trend. Pay close attention to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the day.
The upper short-term focus is on the first line resistance from 1995 to 1998, while the lower short-term focus is on the first line support from 1975 to 1978.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Wednesday (November 1st) in the US market, crude oil prices were trading around 81.20 US dollars per barrel. Oil prices fell for the second consecutive day, and the center of gravity continued to shift downwards. WTI crude oil has already approached its October low, indicating that the geopolitical premium has been basically completely reversed. The crude oil market itself lacks information, and the oil price continues to decline, challenging the lower support area. From the recent fluctuations in oil prices and the slow downward movement of the center of gravity, it can be seen that the crude oil market is currently in a relatively chaotic stage, and investors need time to clarify the impact of various factors. API data in the early morning showed a slight accumulation of crude oil in the United States, while gasoline and diesel stocks were removed. The overall inventory data had little impact on oil prices. Currently, oil prices are facing a contradiction between low inventory at the supply and demand level and a weakening of supply and demand. At the macro level, they also face a complex situation, which makes it difficult for investors to make a consistent bet on the future direction of oil prices. From the performance of oil prices over the past period of time, overall expectations are still ahead, Even with the impact of the sudden Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the overall focus of oil prices has significantly declined. Currently, $80 will become a very critical region. If oil prices directly fall below $80 in the current context and tend towards the target price of the US Department of Energy to replenish strategic reserves, it means that investors' clear pessimistic expectations for the future market will dominate oil price fluctuations for a period of time. This week, closely monitor whether bulls can organize effective resistance around $80. Considering the current low inventory background, it is expected that bulls will not easily give up on this level and focus on the outcome of the competition. Next, there will be heavyweight macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and risky assets are expected to maintain high volatility. Be cautious in participating and pay attention to the rhythm.
Market News Analysis
The Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022 to maintain stability, but due to the strong US economy, there is room for further rate hikes. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a press conference on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is uncertain whether US interest rates are high enough to bring inflation back to its annual target of 2%, indicating that the central bank may raise interest rates again at its December policy meeting. At the end of the November policy meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. Powell said, "We have no confidence in whether the policy is sufficiently restrictive." Previously, the central bank had raised interest rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023. The US dollar rose to a four week high against a basket of other currencies. Last week, the increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories also put pressure on crude oil futures, as refineries undergoing seasonal maintenance restarted their facilities slower than expected to avoid an increase in gasoline inventories. A private survey shows that in China, the world's largest oil importer, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in October, exacerbating the pessimistic official data from the previous day.
OANDA's Moya said, "The oil market will continue to focus on the deteriorating demand outlook and whether the latest developments in the war between Israel and Hamas will lead to supply disruptions
According to official media reports, Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, has called on Muslim countries to stop exporting oil and food to Israel. According to US energy data, Iran is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with crude oil production of approximately 2.5 million barrels per day in 2022.
Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, said that if the war did not pose a threat to production, "without OPEC+support, oil prices may find it difficult to maintain near recent highs until 2024, which makes the meeting later this month crucial." According to industry consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, European oil inventories have fallen to their lowest point in 10 years. On the week of October 27th, inventory at the Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp trading center dropped to 48.8 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022 and the lowest level in the same period since 2013. These data provide support for those who are bullish on oil prices, believing that while many major oil producing countries around the world maintain market supply, oil demand remains good.
Energy consulting firm Ritterbusch stated in a report that oil prices have risen after falling nearly 11% in October, but the increase is expected to be limited. The company believes that US oil futures will rise to $86 per barrel in the short term, but "from an investment perspective, we will further treat this market with caution. Ritterbusch expects that the hawkish rhetoric of the Federal Reserve will exacerbate concerns about oil demand and also support the US dollar, with macro factors potentially becoming a greater driving force for oil pricing.
In terms of crude oil supply, EIA data shows that US crude oil exports increased by 64000 barrels per day to 4.897 million barrels per day in the week of October 27th. The US has an EIA crude oil inventory of 773000 barrels for the week ending October 27th, with an expected 1.261 million barrels, compared to the previous value of 1.372 million barrels.
In October, OPEC's oil production increased by approximately 50000 barrels per day month on month, reaching 28.1 million barrels per day, with multiple African countries increasing their oil production. The Federal Reserve stated that it is tracking the economic impact of geopolitical composition. The oil price has not yet significantly reflected the impact of this round of conflict between Palestine and Israel. The "New Bond King" Gunlak stated that oil is an uncertain factor, but currently, the commodity market is in a dormant state., If there are incorrect results in the Middle East region, oil prices are likely to rise significantly. He said, "Everyone should be surprised that the oil price is approaching $80 per barrel
Technical analysis of crude oil: Yesterday, crude oil fluctuated and retreated in consecutive negative periods. After a long period of horizontal consolidation, it ultimately failed to hold the low point of 81.50 and closed at a low level. Although the space was not fully released, the small steps of the 4-hour chart structure fluctuated and broke through the low line, with key low points breaking through and the short-term falling wave continuing. The daily line is accompanied by a continuous retreat of Yin and Yang, breaking the fluctuating pattern of Yin and Yang. The 4-hour chart takes 90.70 as the first wave step, and 85.80 as the second wave. The local high point of the step fluctuates and falls downward, forming a downward trend. Currently, after repeatedly testing the low point, it has formed a downward trend in the sorting process. Today, in the short term, we will rely on the trend around 82.60-83.0 to see the decline. It is not ruled out that there may be repeated sawing, but as long as the tail end retracts to a low position, the short line will continue to look downwards. At present, there is also a tendency for the weekly line to fall off the track, forming a breakthrough in the competition.
Focus on the resistance line from 82.8 to 83.0 above,
Follow the frontline support from 79.3 to 79.5 below.
