On Wednesday (November 1st), as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, hopes of a possible end to the rate hike cycle increased, leading to gains in US stocks and bonds.
The Australian stock market opened strongly, with benchmark stock index futures in Japan and Hong Kong both rising, echoing Wednesday's 1.1% rise in the S&P 500 index. This rise is expected to set the best weekly performance for the US stock index since March, while the Nasdaq 100 index, which is mainly focused on technology stocks, rose 1.8%. US stock index futures rose slightly in early Asian trading.
Australia and New Zealand treasury bond yields fell, corresponding to the decline in US treasury bond yields on Wednesday. The 10-year benchmark interest rate fell by 20 basis points, initially triggered by the US Treasury Department's plan to slow down the growth rate of long-term bond sales. The US Treasury Department has stated that it will sell $112 billion in long-term securities at next week's quarterly refund auction, slightly lower than the expectations of major traders.
The decline in US treasury bond bond yields depressed the US dollar, which weakened against major currencies and helped support the yen. The yen strengthened early Thursday, continuing Wednesday's gains.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to further interest rate hikes in the central bank's decision on Wednesday, but pointed out that the financial situation has "significantly tightened in recent months, driven by factors such as rising long-term bond yields.
James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING Financial Markets LLC, said, "We do not expect further interest rate hikes this cycle. The rise in borrowing costs for households and businesses is starting to have an impact
The US employment data portrays a mixed picture. According to the latest JOLTS data, the number of job vacancies is higher than expected, while ADP's private employment data shows that the number of new positions is lower than expected. The number of first applications for unemployment benefits will be announced later on Thursday.
In other aspects, as inflation concerns ease, the Bank of England is expected to hold its second consecutive meeting on Thursday to keep interest rates unchanged.
In Asia, South Korean inflation unexpectedly accelerated in October, reinforcing the rationale for the central bank to maintain restrictive policies for a longer period of time. Other economic data released on Thursday include Malaysia's monetary policy decision and Singapore's purchasing managers' index data. Investors will also pay attention to the financial reports of Tata Motors Limited and Adani Enterprises Limited.
Other companies that are about to release results include Lilly and Novo Nordisk, while Apple will release its latest financial report in the United States later Thursday. The highlights of Wednesday's corporate financial report include Qualcomm providing a better than expected revenue forecast for the current quarter, while Airbnb provided a disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter
The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose to around $81 per barrel early Thursday, partially recovering from Wednesday's decline. The price of gold remains stable and remains above the 1980 level.
Focus and wind vane of Thursday trading day:
① 15:30 Swiss October CPI Monthly Rate
② 16:00 Swiss Q4 Consumer Confidence Index
③ 16:50 Final Value of Manufacturing PMI in France in October
④ 16:55 Final value of manufacturing PMI in Germany in October, 16:55 Number of unemployed people in Germany after quarterly adjustment in October, and unemployment rate in Germany after quarterly adjustment in October
⑤ 17:00 Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI Final Value, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Holds a Press Conference
⑥ 19:30 Challenger Enterprise layoffs in October in the United States
⑦ 20:00 Bank of England announces interest rate resolution and monetary policy report
⑧ At 20:30, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States until October 28th, and Bank of England Governor Bailey held a press conference
⑨ 22:00 Monthly rate of factory orders in September in the United States
⑩ 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory for the week from the United States to October 27th
Analysis of Major Currency Trends:
EUR: EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0569, a decrease of 0.04%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0591, the further resistance is at 1.0618, and the key resistance is at 1.0655; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0527, further support is at 1.0489, and more critical support is at 1.0462.
GBP: GBP/USD remained unchanged at 1.2151. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2177, the further resistance is at 1.2205, and the key resistance is at 1.2246; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2108, further support is at 1.2067, and more critical support is at 1.204.
JPY: USD/JPY closed lower at 150.950, down 0.47%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 151.523, the further resistance is at 152.106, and the key resistance is at 152.537; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 150.509, further support is at 150.078, and more critical support is at 149.495.
