crude oil
Fundamentals/Market: Currently, global crude oil inventories are still at historically low levels, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has further brought a premium risk to the already tight supply oil market under the background of reduced production. If the conflict spreads further, it will also lead to a significant increase in oil prices. For the fourth quarter, on the one hand, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other production reduction actions are still ongoing, and the global oil market supply side continues to be tight. On the other hand, concerns about demand suppression due to high oil prices have been confirmed to some extent. The latest EIA gasoline inventory data in the United States has performed poorly, with significant inventory accumulation. Under downward pressure on the global economy and the Federal Reserve's final decision to raise interest rates, traders' expectations have been affected. In the short term, geopolitical factors are driving up oil prices, and traders are cautious in catching up and paying attention to the rhythm. Operational strategy: wait-and-see oriented
fuel oil
Fundamentals/Market: On the cost side, the early fuel oil market followed the decline in oil prices. In addition, there have been signs of weakening demand in the fuel oil market recently. On the one hand, the demand for domestic power plants has slowed down, and with the rise of oil prices, the cost of using fuel oil has increased, resulting in a decrease in fuel cost-effectiveness. On the other hand, overseas markets such as Pakistan and Bangladesh have shown signs of a decrease in expected import volume due to the season, while refinery resumption has led to an increase in expected export volume. At the same time, in the context of the US government's repeated statements on oil prices and frequent actions against countries such as Iran and Venezuela, coupled with the slowing demand in the fuel oil market, the focus is on whether there are unexpected changes in the supply side of crude oil in the later stage, and investors are cautious in investing in the short term. Operational strategy: wait-and-see oriented
asphalt
Fundamentals/Market: The overall demand recovery in the asphalt market is still slow, and currently, supply side pressure still exists to suppress current prices. In addition, although the current cost side oil price will support BU in the short term, the driving force of Far Month BU is still unclear, so trading is cautious. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
Agricultural products sector
Soybean meal
Fundamentals/Market: In the medium term, the demand side tends to slow down, and without the interference of diseases, the phased nature of soybean meal demand is guaranteed. In the short term, feed manufacturers have relatively sufficient pre holiday stocking, while mainstream oil companies continue to experience dismal transactions. The stocking sentiment is low, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. On the supply side, the soybean supply from November to December increased month on month. Soybean meal oscillation is the main strategy, and both 11-1 and 1-5 sets can be operated strategically. Strategy: oscillation
Soybean oil
Fundamentals/Disk: There will be an increase in Q4 on the supply side, and there will be some pressure on inventory. On the demand side, Q4 is a seasonal peak season. Technically speaking, after reaching a high of 8500 points in the early stage, it turned down to 8150 and stabilized at the moving average. Q4 soybean oil is in a volatile state. Operation strategy: oscillation
soybean
Fundamentals/Market: In terms of total volume, global inventory is still in the repair period, which means that the price trend is downward; The pricing center is still on the CBOT market, which limits the decline in the market, as the supply and demand of American beans themselves are relatively tight, and planting costs are still significantly supported. Operational strategy: bearish
corn
Fundamentals/Market: As the new season corn harvest comes to an end, expectations for increased production and good quality have strengthened, and the market has formed a consensus of bearish expectations, especially during the period of declining profits or even losses in the aquaculture industry. Downstream procurement is cautious, which has suppressed corn prices this year. However, in recent years, the domestic corn reserves have significantly decreased, and China State Grain Reserves may increase its purchasing power this year, which will provide support for corn prices. Therefore, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
White sugar
Fundamentals/Market: 1. The main producing country Brazil is increasing production, offsetting India's reduction in production, and there may be a surplus expected. 2. State owned reserves dump reserves and suppress prices. 3. Domestic new sugar extraction to alleviate the market supply pattern. 4. The prices of crude oil and raw sugar have fallen, resulting in weak market sentiment. Operational strategy: Short selling on high
Live pigs
Fundamentals/Market: The number of sows eliminated has significantly increased, and the current market has sufficient pig resources, but terminal demand has not yet improved significantly. The sales of white bars are slow, and the slaughter end is buying at a lower price. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
Black Plate
Iron ore
Fundamentals/Panel: In terms of supply, global shipments have decreased, and the total shipments of the four major mines have also significantly decreased. Non mainstream mines have seen a steady increase in supply driven by high Proctor prices, but domestic mineral production has slightly decreased. The overall supply margin of iron ore is relatively balanced. In terms of demand, currently the production of molten iron is high, and the fundamental contradiction of iron ore is not prominent. However, the deviation between the high production of molten iron and the profit loss of steel mills may not be sustainable in the long term. With the increase of overseas supply and the active reduction of production by steel mills, the pressure on iron ore port inventory will increase, which will create pressure on iron ore prices. Considering the low spot inventory of low-end iron ore products, it is difficult to support a significant pullback in ore prices. The peak season fulfillment degree of black terminal demand, the terminal's ability to bear the price of finished products, and the profit game between upstream and downstream of the industrial chain all need to be paid attention to. Operation strategy: combining interval operation with short selling during high periods
coking coal
Fundamentals/Market: In terms of supply, overseas, due to the impact of holidays in the early stage, the recovery of coking coal supply at the China Mongolia border port has been slow. The cost-effectiveness of imported Australian coal has weakened, and the import volume of Australian coal has decreased. On the domestic side, the tightening of coal mine safety inspections has led to disturbances on the supply side. In terms of demand, downstream coking plants and steel mills need to maintain low inventory of coking coal in the early stage, and the material end needs to recover. Short term demand support for coking coal is still ongoing. Overall, coking coal is still in the stage of supply and demand mismatch. Considering that the production of molten iron may gradually show a phased peak, there is some pressure on the demand support for coking coal, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal market will fluctuate at a high level. In the medium to long term, with the implementation of macroeconomic policies in the second half of the fourth quarter, winter storage support, raw material supply during the heating season, and supply and demand adjustments in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the price center will gradually shift upwards. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
coke
Fundamentals/Market: In terms of supply, the third round of increase in coke prices started last week, but the steel mills have not yet accepted it, resulting in a marginal contraction in profits for coke companies. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills maintained low inventory of coke in the early stage, and short-term demand support for coke remained. Overall, the prices of raw coal are strong, with strong cost support. Coupled with the high production of molten iron and the rebound in end market trading sentiment, the fundamentals of coke are currently not weak. Considering the gradual return of the deviation between high production of molten iron and deteriorating profitability of steel mills, the game between coke and steel is intensifying, and there is some pressure on short-term demand support for coke. It is expected that short-term coke volatility will be strong. Operational strategy: Short term recommendation for coking coal callback and long term operation strategy: Watch and see
Threaded steel
Fundamentals/Panel: In the long run, steel mills are more eager to cash in on current profits despite low profits, coupled with low daily scrap consumption, resulting in a slight decrease in the high iron production rate. In terms of demand, the demand for real estate steel is still weak, and the leading indicator of the decline in newly constructed area is expanding. The steel used for infrastructure has fallen, and the issuance speed of local government special bonds has not been as expected. The market trading sentiment is average. Overall, the production of molten iron has periodically peaked and declined, and the demand for "nine gold and ten silver" products has fallen short of expectations. The market's expectation for steel demand during the peak season has weakened, and inventory continues to decline. It is expected that there will be fluctuations in the short term under a weak pattern. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
Nonferrous Plate
copper
Fundamentals/Market: On a macro level, the conflict between Palestine and Israel continues to escalate, with an increase in market risk aversion and short-term macro bearish sentiment; Last September, the US CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, with short-term Fed hawkish expectations rising; The latest economic and financial data in China has rebounded, and macroeconomic sentiment in the country has rebounded. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of supply, overseas copper mines are in a period of increasing production; The pace of refined copper smelting in China is accelerating, and the overall supply side pressure is increasing. In terms of demand, domestic demand has improved while overseas demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, domestic inventory is removed while overseas inventory is accumulated. Overall, macro repression still exists at this stage, and copper prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and focus on the 66000 support line. The fundamental situation at home and abroad has diverged, and attention can be paid to opportunities for internal and external collusion. Operational strategy: wait and see; Inner and outer sleeves are reversed.
aluminium
Fundamentals/Panel: In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 43 million tons, which is not far from the ceiling of domestic production capacity of 45 million tons. The future supply release is limited. On the cost side, the recent increase in alumina prices and disturbance in ore prices have driven up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. The domestic production cost of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 15970 yuan/ton. The production increase rate of alumina production enterprises is slightly slower than expected, but the overall industry is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that prices in the medium to long term will still return to the cost line. At present, the complete cost of domestic alumina is about 2700 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the performance of terminal demand is stable. In terms of inventory, during the National Day holiday, there was a significant accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory, which had a certain impact on prices. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively healthy at present, but during the National Day holiday, there is a large accumulation of aluminum ingots, combined with macro negative effects, which has a certain degree of inhibition on aluminum prices. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term. Operational strategy: wait-and-see
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