On Tuesday (October 24th), gold prices were trading around $1964 per ounce in the US market. The US dollar index has risen strongly and is currently successfully above the 106 level. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the rising yield of treasury bond bonds, gold prices continued to fall, further away from the five month high hit last week, while traders paid close attention to US economic data and tensions in the Middle East. This week, the United States will receive key GDP data, preceded by analysts warning not to be fooled by strong economic growth. An economic recession may still be imminent. Investors should not be fooled by strong GDP growth in the next quarter or two, as an economic recession may still be imminent. The Palestinian and Israeli sides have reached an agreement to provide assistance to the affected people in Gaza, and two Israeli hostages have also returned to their homes. This conversation may lead to a temporary easing of a crazy war. Of course, the fighting is expected to continue, but Israel may be willing to delay the ground attack to safely return more hostages. Therefore, the gold market takes this opportunity to avoid some risks and reassess the next trend. Due to preliminary US economic data showing better than expected economic activity in October, with both manufacturing and service industries expanding, the gold market may face further selling pressure. The initial PMI of the Markit service industry in the United States in October reached 50.9, a new high since August 2023. The report states that service industry activity has risen to its highest level in three months. The initial response of the gold market to positive economic data has not undergone significant changes. The market is paying attention to the US Q3 GDP data released on Thursday and the US PCE price index released on Friday, which may affect the interest rate outlook of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in November. However, due to some traders taking profits, precious metals are facing some technical selling pressure. If we see data showing a strong US economy and the Middle East situation not breaking out, it will be bearish for gold as it will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, the Asian session initially fluctuated between 1980 and 70, while the European session rebounded due to the rise of the US index, causing gold to suffer a wave of pressure and fall, with a low point falling to the 1953 line. Although there was a need for a correction in gold technology before, it has been hindered by the persistence of risk aversion, and the adjustment has not been able to let go. The hope for the adjustment can only be pinned on the strengthening of the US index. Currently, based on the daily and hourly structure of gold, the gold market is likely to continue the weak adjustment trend, mainly focusing on the first line of 1980. Although there is a need for continued correction in technology, there is still limited space below, You can first focus on the competition in the 1955 area. The maximum allowable range for gold withdrawal this time is around 1940. If this position falls, market sentiment may change due to its own current situation. Overall, the short-term gold market is likely to continue to fluctuate and decline. Conservatively, for the time being, we choose to wait and see to avoid the risk of too complex trading environment. If we are radical, we will lower the operating space of gold expectations, referring to the 1980 50 range, Temporarily, conduct short-term low altitude operations in this interval.
At present, based on the daily and hourly chart structure of gold, the probability of evening gold will continue to adjust weakly. The upper part can focus on the short-term pressure competition in 1970, while the main focus is still on the 1980 first line. Although there is a need for continued repair in technology, the space below is still limited. You can first focus on the competition in the 1953-50 area. The maximum allowable retreat range for this gold retreat is around 1940. If this position is missed, The market sentiment may change due to its current situation, but during this period, the situation between Palestine and Israel may escalate at any time, which will still be a key factor hindering the adjustment of gold.
Overall, the probability of evening gold will continue to fluctuate and fall. The upper level can focus on the 1975 short-term pressure competition, while the main focus is still on the 1982 first line. Although there is a need for a continued pullback in technology, there is still limited space below. You can first focus on the 1953-1950 first line support. In terms of evening gold operation, conservatively choose to wait and see for the time being to avoid the risk of too complex trading environment, and aggressively lower the operating space of gold expectations, Referring to the 1980-50 interval, we will temporarily conduct short-term low altitude tests in this interval.
The upper short-term focus is on the first line resistance from 1988 to 1990, while the lower short-term focus is on the first line support from 1950 to 1953.
On Tuesday (October 24th), crude oil prices were trading near $83.90 per barrel in the US market. With diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices have declined, and potential supply restrictions caused by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are easing. Investors showed optimism on Monday, with crude oil prices falling nearly 3%. The crude oil price plummeted by about 3% on Monday, causing a pullback in crude oil prices due to efforts by multiple countries to erase the bullish sentiment that has driven the market up in the past two weeks. However, although the current war has not yet brought significant risks to oil trade, analysis shows that the fundamental reason for the recent impact on crude oil trends is significant political events. However, these events have not yet shown any significant risks in crude oil trade. The key issue is that the value of crude oil is achieved through actual demand, and unlike gold or the US dollar, it is not just an asset that benefits from hedging demand. That is to say, supply is at risk, and prices may not necessarily continue to rise, but the opposite may also occur. However, just like any conflict involved in multi-level decision-making, the possibility of peaceful resolution still exists. Of course, in addition to political factors, there are also news from the market that affects the price of crude oil. The price trend of the oil market continues to depend on developments in the Middle East, and investors are expected to pay close attention.
Technical analysis of crude oil; Yesterday, crude oil retreated from the negative line and closed lower, while the daily line continued to recover from losses and strengthen without further recovery. The daily trend continues to be weak and downward in some areas, with a focus on the support strength of the double low points of 81.50 and 82.30 below. In the short term, it will temporarily maintain a fluctuating operation within the range. Before breaking through, the fluctuation will not change and the strength will be uncertain. The 4-hour chart reflects last week's volatile upward space, breaking two low points and falling off the medium track. The short-term performance of the 4-hour chart is relatively weak, but overall it remains volatile within a wide range. In the short term, it is possible to lower the low point for the third time to seek support, and whether it can stabilize will determine the future direction. Is it to recover and strengthen or weaken and decline. The direction is in the selection process. The short-term outlook for the day remains volatile.
The daily trend continues to be weak and downward in some areas, with a focus on the support strength of the double low points of 81.50 and 82.30 below. In the short term, it will temporarily maintain a fluctuating operation within the range. Before breaking through, the fluctuation will not change and the strength will be uncertain. The 4-hour chart reflects last week's volatile upward space, breaking two low points and falling off the medium track. The short-term performance of the 4-hour chart is relatively weak, but overall it remains volatile within a wide range.
The upper short-term focus is on the front line resistance of 85.0-85.3,
Short term focus on 81.8-82.0 frontline support below.
