Analysis of Gold News: Due to the intensification of the Middle East conflict, investors have flocked to safe haven assets. Gold prices rose more than 3% last Friday, setting the largest weekly increase since mid March. Gold is more than $90 higher than last week's closing price. On Friday (October 13th), the market closed with spot gold rising 3.42% to close at $1932.71 per ounce. Late last Thursday, as the war with Hamas escalated, the Israeli government warned more than 1 million people in northern Gaza to evacuate the area, leading to an increase in gold prices. There are also increasing rumors that Israel is preparing to launch a large-scale ground attack on Gaza. This has stimulated capital inflows into assets such as gold that are considered safe haven assets. As the financial market prepared to face the adverse factors and fluctuations brought about by armed attacks in Gaza, gold prices rose 1.7% on Monday. For the Federal Reserve, Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan said that in view of the recent surge in the yield of long-term U.S. government bonds, the need for the Federal Reserve to further raise the benchmark interest rate may be reduced. Recently, the Federal Reserve's Vice Chairman in charge of regulating financial affairs, Barr, mentioned in another event the September non farm report that unexpectedly "exploded" last Friday. He believes that some important factors indicate that the supply and demand of the US labor market are tending towards a better balance.
In terms of data, the next week will be relatively calm again. The most important data will be the US September retail sales data released on Tuesday, with economists warning that weak consumption will make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. Other noteworthy events are the investigations by the Federal Reserve of New York and Philadelphia, as well as the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Thursday. Gold's response to escalating political tensions may weaken due to inflation expectations and investor concerns about the Fed's interest rate outlook; The Federal Reserve has opened the door to another rate hike before the end of 2023, but the dovish and hawkish comments from different Fed officials on Tuesday have blurred the direction forward. Gold's response to escalating political tensions may weaken due to inflation expectations and investor concerns about the Fed's interest rate outlook; The Federal Reserve has opened the door to another rate hike before the end of 2023, but the dovish and hawkish comments from different Fed officials on Tuesday have blurred the direction forward.
Technical analysis of gold: With the ongoing outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, gold has continued to experience a surge in risk aversion. Currently, the market has completely broken away from the 1800 range and officially reached above the 1900 level. In such a strong situation, even if the United States continues to aid Israel and continuously sanctions Hamas, it will be ineffective. After all, the United States' own inflation rates are still high, and even through interest rate hikes, inflation cannot come down, And now we not only need to support Israel, but also Ukraine, so we can't be too busy. In this current situation, the conflict between Palestine and Israel will not weaken, and inflation in the United States will not immediately decrease. Therefore, the gold trend is still bullish!
After a significant rebound on Friday, the current daily trend has also taken advantage of the trend and entered the September high range of 1900-1950. Based on the overall volatility of the US market on Friday night, multiple target points above gold have already reached the 1948 1955 level, while the support of the short line below has returned to the lowest point of Friday night's pullback, 1905-1908 level. Therefore, even if there is a pullback in gold next week, We only saw the 1905-1908 level when looking at the overall correction and repair points, and then we can gradually go long again to see the further target points near the 1948 1955 level above!
The current bullish trend in gold is still the main trend, and from the current bullish level, we have already taken advantage of the trend to reach the 1910-1900 level below. If gold does not give us a chance to retrace below 1920 this week, we can directly use 1910 as support to gradually long and look at the 1947-1953 high above. Even if gold has retraced and directly retraced to near the 1910-1908 level below, And this is also the best spot for us to go long!
The upper short-term focus is on the resistance on the 1943-1945 front line, while the lower short-term focus is on the support on the 1910-1908 front line.
Analysis of crude oil news: Last Friday (October 13th), US crude oil rebounded and rebounded, but was hindered and corrected; The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Thursday that after the Hamas attack on Israel, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have escalated, and the oil market is in a tense state. There is uncertainty about how the situation will develop or to what extent the conflict may spread. Oil prices surged on Monday, after Hamas's attack on Israel reignited tensions in the Middle East, and the war premium in the market reappeared. In its report, the IEA stated: "Although physical supply has not been directly affected, as the crisis unfolds, the market will still be on pins and needles." The IEA stated: "In 2024, global oil demand growth will slow to 900000 barrels per day, as the rebound after the epidemic loses momentum, while economic expansion slows down and energy efficiency improvements drag down oil usage." Fear has spread again, Causing a similar reaction in the market as seen on Monday. Risk assets were quickly sold off, and crude oil prices surged again. Analysts say that although the market will "evaluate this situation every day", "one scenario is that oil prices will indeed rise significantly" to cope with potential supply disruptions in the region.
Technical analysis of crude oil: Last Friday, crude oil rebounded first and then fell, with a daily cross and closed flat. The highest rebound was 85.10, and the first line was under pressure before measuring 82.30. There is a certain range of space, with high and low points concentrated in the US market period, following a trend of rising before falling. There is a slight sign of market washing, not an extremely weak unilateral market, with the daily closing flat. The weekly closing on Friday may continue to fluctuate. The 4-hour chart rebounds and the track is under pressure before falling back, currently competing for breakthroughs around the range of 87.0-81.50. The continuation of the downward wave pattern has not yet broken below the low point of 81.50, resulting in insufficient space for continuation, accompanied by a back and forth tug of war to correct the index. The 1-hour chart fell from the upper track to the lower track on Bollinger Road, and it happened to be running in a contraction zone. The continuity was not strong, and the short-term approach was treated with a oscillatory approach. This week's operation was also focused on operating within the zone. The weekly competition for the closing determines the direction of next week, and the short term will be more intense. In the short term, we will continue to look at yesterday's intrarange fluctuations.
The upper short-term focus is on the 89.8-90.0 line of resistance,
Below, focus on the frontline support of 86.3-86.5 in the short term.
