Analysis of gold news: On Wednesday (October 11th), spot gold continued its upward trend and rebounded to break through the high; As the focus shifts to the Middle East and political tensions disrupt global markets, precious metal futures continue to be supported by safe haven buying. However, some investors are cautious about returning to riskier assets, waiting for further clues from the Federal Reserve's policy stance. Gold prices remained near a week high on Tuesday. In recent months, due to the increasing demand for the US dollar in an uncertain global environment, the gold market has faced pressure. However, the resurgence of political risks may reverse this trend. This development may reignite demand for gold in the final quarter, weakening the current attractiveness of overbought dollars. With the increase in risk perception leading to an increase in demand for commodities, the gold market has seen a bearish opening. A report predicts that as bond yields continue to rise and the US economy remains strong, gold may face continued volatility in the coming weeks. Gold's response to escalating political tensions may weaken due to inflation expectations and investor concerns about the Fed's interest rate outlook; The Federal Reserve has opened the door to another rate hike before the end of 2023, but the dovish and hawkish comments from different Fed officials on Tuesday have blurred the direction forward.
Technical analysis of gold: Yesterday, gold opened high and closed high, with the daily line closing at the physical bullish line. The K-line stabilized and the 10-year moving average rose, while the 5-day moving average turned upward. In the short term, gold has strong upward momentum, and is expected to further rise today. The upper focus is on the resistance level of the 1873 line. Overall, the current rebound in the daily level is a correction of the previous downward trend. This time, gold stopped falling and rebounded in 1810, in conjunction with the upward trend of the news surface, sustainability is a problem, Technically, there has been no trend shift. From the wave structure perspective, it is still in the upward movement of 1810 with a rebound trend of C wave 4, and there is still a downward wave of 5 waves. Yesterday morning, the high opening left a gap that has not been filled yet.
The 4-hour level gold opened high in the short range yesterday, while the white market maintained a star K consolidation. It continued to rebound in the evening, with a strong upward trend. The rebound is only a correction to the previous decline, leaving a gap in the lower short range, and the possibility of a big rise is not high. Today, we will continue to pay attention to the pressure drop after the rebound to fill the gap. In addition, even if the current trend of gold undergoes a reversal, there will be a second bottoming action. From the 1-hour chart, it can be seen that gold rebounded after hitting 1844 after opening high yesterday. This level has become the watershed for today's bulls. With the continuous fermentation of bulls, the resistance above today will increase slightly, and the price is currently reaching the daily resistance level. This is also the first time that the price has corrected to daily resistance. We need to pay attention to the market's further pressure and decline. In addition, the gap in the following week has not been filled yet, and the price has shown a deviation phenomenon in the past hour, Below, we will focus on the 1845-1835 region. After the price fully fills the gap, we will conduct a specific analysis again to see if the pressure will continue or if it will be revised again.
The upper short-term focus is on the resistance on the 1888-1890 front line, while the lower short-term focus is on the support on the 1863-1860 front line.
Analysis of crude oil news: On Wednesday (October 11th), the upward trend of US crude oil was hindered and a weak correction was made; Oil prices have fluctuated significantly in the midst of escalating risks, rising sharply on Monday and then falling on Tuesday. Concerns about supply disruptions caused by the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic organization Hamas have eased, but market sentiment is relatively cautious, and investors have still not engaged in intense selling as they are concerned about further developments in the future. This week, global markets began to experience increased volatility, and tensions between Palestine and Israel escalated. These political factors have added to the already tumultuous week in the global market. It is worth noting that after last week's surprising employment data, the release of US CPI data has become even more important. However, if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, the market is likely to consider political risks this week. This may temporarily overshadow major economic developments this week. Analysts say the armed conflict between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to disrupt the flow of physical crude oil, as the US government has been implementing policies to limit supply disruptions. Macquarie pointed out that there are some upward risks associated with the Middle East conflict in oil prices, but overall they remain bearish due to the weakened OPEC+compliance capacity and the increase in low sulfur crude oil production in the United States, North Sea, and Brazil.
Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil has been stagnant for two consecutive trading days, but its spatial sustainability has not emerged. It is also a stage of selecting direction to enter the consolidation and correction process. It remains to be seen whether it will rebound and switch from pressure to decline, or rely on last week's low of 81.50 as support to stabilize and rebound. The daily line is currently slightly inactive. Continue to wait for the next transformation of form to determine the direction. The 4-hour chart is temporarily maintained on a stable medium track and organized. The long-term market has not turned down, and there is a trend of recovery in the short term. However, there is also uncertainty about the downward trend of the weekly K-line, waiting for confirmation from this week's closing. There is a differentiation between short-term and weekly charts. During the convergence and organization of the hour chart, the space was too small. After the volume was increased, the physical K-line shape broke through and went out of the direction. The operation continued to be based on the temporary market, and the entry position was determined based on the breakthrough of the hour K-line during the market.
The upper short-term focus is on the first line of resistance from 84.3 to 84.5,
Short term focus on 81.0-81.2 frontline support below.
