Last Friday (October 6th), spot gold closed at $1831.82 per ounce, up $11.72 or 0.64% on the day, but fell $16.87 or 0.91% this week. After falling 3% last week, gold prices continued to decline this week, with a drop of nearly 1%. As the market evaluates the potential impact of the latest strong macroeconomic data released by the United States on the policy outlook of the Federal Reserve, soaring global bond yields continue to severely weigh on gold. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics announced in Friday's employment report that the number of non farm workers (NFP) in the United States increased by 336000 in September. In addition, the non agricultural employment data for July and August were revised up by 79000 and 40000 respectively. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics pointed out that "after these revisions, the combined employment figures for July and August were 119000 more than previously announced." After two days of adjustment, the US dollar rebounded at the beginning of the US market, limiting the upward space for gold. However, the trend quickly reversed, with the US dollar rising and falling, and gold prices rebounding strongly, but this week still ended with a close down.
Technical analysis of gold: From a daily perspective, last Friday's gold hit a low and rebounded, with a mid day positive with a down shadow. From a daily perspective, last Friday's gold price trend is similar to Thursday's. After a brief decline in gold prices under the influence of data, there was a trend of short-term buying and rising. At present, the daily closing line ends with one positive and nine consecutive negative events. The MACD fast slow line diverges upwards after the golden cross, and the RSI shows a bottom deviation. However, the sideways oscillation that occurs after a decline is usually more likely to be a bearish relay. However, the correction requirements for transaction volume and 4-hour and daily levels have not been met. Therefore, I prefer that the current low volatility of gold is not a bearish relay, but a short-term bottom.
According to the 4-hour chart, gold was trading near the mid track on Friday, but rebounded after falling to a low after the evening data was released. It pierced the upper track and closed at a high level in the day. Currently, the Bollinger Belt is in an open period, with the MA moving average moving forward on the third line, the KDJ random indicator moving up on the third line, reaching overbought. The MACD indicator has a red kinetic energy column, and the fast/slow line has a gold cross upward. Gold has started to stabilize after passing through non agricultural bulls, And before the close, it continued to rebound by nearly 20 points. If gold continues to rebound and even if it does not fall below the 1825-1830 level, it will continue to fluctuate. That overall indicates that the bearish strength has gradually dissipated and the market will gradually confirm the bearish position.
The upper short-term focus is on the resistance on the 1868-1866 front line, while the lower short-term focus is on the support on the 1838-1840 front line.
Oil prices rose on Friday, but still recorded their largest weekly decline since March, as Russia once again partially lifted its fuel export ban, exacerbating demand concerns caused by macroeconomic unfavorable factors. OPEC has raised its mid to long-term oil demand forecast. Three sources from OPEC said that in an upcoming report, OPEC has raised its mid to long-term oil demand forecast, highlighting the oil export organization's more positive view compared to other forecasting agencies, despite the global transition to renewable energy. The latest long-term oil demand forecast will be released by OPEC in its "2023 World Oil Outlook" scheduled for October 9th. Higher oil demand will provide a boost to oil producing countries and OPEC, highlighting the need for sustained investment. Compared to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other forecasting agencies, this also highlights OPEC's more optimistic view on the outlook for oil demand. Sources say demand is still on the rise. During the past 18 months of high oil prices, oil usage has shown resilience.
Technical analysis of crude oil: Crude oil continued to decline last Friday, with continuous negative daily declines, changing the previous upward pattern and combining with the weekly trend. This week, it is likely to harvest the Da Yin K line, with one Yin swallowing three Yang, in conjunction with the previous cross K line, forming a downward pregnancy line. The weekly adjustment will continue until next week. The daily trend continues to be overcast with a wave of backtracking, and the short-term trend weakens. The 4-hour chart yesterday was basically a weak continuation of a decline, and compared to the previous downward trend, yesterday was just a downward trend of inertia. Yesterday's daily review showed that 84.0-84.50 frontline short selling was also completed as scheduled, and 83.0-82.0 target areas were bagged in batches. At present, the 4-hour chart is still in a straight downward trend. There are two stages of decline: a straight decline combined with a fluctuating step decline. Currently, it is in the first stage and there is still room for further downward movement. Today, the operation will remain bearish and rebound, but it is also important to pay attention to the formation of local downward probing, rebound correction, and then seek resistance before turning the stage downward. Duokong is in the transition stage and there is a possibility of sawing and washing dishes.
Focus on the first line resistance between 87.9 and 87.6 in the short term,
Below, short-term focus on 85.0-85.3 frontline support.
