On Tuesday (September 26th), as confidence in the economy stagnated and investors began to consider a long-term high interest rate environment, the US stock market fell to its lowest level since early June. The US dollar continued its upward trend for the fifth consecutive day.
Main currencies and commodities closed on September 26th:
Foreign exchange: EUR/USD closed at 1.0572; GBP/USD closed at 1.2157; AUD/USD closed at 0.63970; USD/JPY closed at 149.055; USD/CAD closed at 1.35121; The US dollar/Swiss franc closed at 0.91332. Commodity: Spot gold closed at $1900.44 per ounce; Comex futures closed at $1919.8 per ounce; Spot silver closed at $22.857 per ounce; Comex silver futures closed at $23.196 per ounce; Brent crude oil closed at $92.44 per barrel; NYMEX crude oil closed at $90.39 per barrel.
Important News Review:
The US economy has weathered some risk events this year, but is now facing a series of threat events that may trigger more instability factors. The four possible threats this autumn include a broader strike by car workers, a prolonged government shutdown, a resumption of student loan repayments, and rising oil prices.
On Tuesday (September 26th), Goldman Sachs' currency research and strategy team significantly lowered their forecast for the pound and announced a "formal shift towards short positions in the pound". Given that Goldman Sachs has been on the right side of the pound's rise over the past year, but after the Bank of England decided to suspend the interest rate hike cycle on September 21, their views have changed, which is worth noting.
On Tuesday (September 26th), the sell-off in the bond market showed no signs of easing as investors sold government bonds and turned to cash in anticipation of a possible further increase in US interest rates. Although the tightening cycle is nearing its end, the hawkish voice of the Federal Reserve has become increasingly strong, causing unease among investors who had been betting on interest rate cuts as early as the spring of 2024.
Although BNP Paribas has slightly reduced its exposure to precious metals, the bank remains optimistic about precious metals as inflation continues to rise despite the Federal Reserve's planned end to the tightening cycle.
Market hotspot tracking:
On Tuesday (September 26th), consumer confidence and new home sales released by the US advisory board fell short of expectations, but Federal Reserve officials Kashkari and J.P. Morgan CEO Damon both made hawkish remarks. Affected by this, the US dollar index continued to climb and hit a new daily high of 106.20, and the three major US stock indices suffered fierce selling.
Foreign exchange market
EUR: EUR/USD fell, closing at 1.0572, a decrease of 0.20%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0597, the further resistance is at 1.0626, and the key resistance is at 1.0644; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.0549, further support is at 1.0531, and more critical support is at 1.0502.
GBP: GBP/USD fell to close at 1.2157, a decrease of 0.44%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2199, the further resistance is at 1.2239, and the key resistance is at 1.2263; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 1.2135, further support is at 1.2111, and more critical support is at 1.2072.
JPY: USD/JPY up, closing at 149.055, up 0.12%. Technically, the initial resistance to the upward trend of the exchange rate is at 149.208, further resistance is at 149.443, and the key resistance is at 149.698; The initial support for the downward trend of the exchange rate is at 148.718, further support is at 148.463, and more critical support is at 148.228.
equity market
On Tuesday (September 26), the main stock indexes of Wall Street fell by more than 1%, and the yield of 10-year US treasury bond bonds remained at a multi-year high. Investors are still struggling to cope with the prospect of long-term high interest rates and their impact on the economy. The Dow Jones index fell 388.00 points, or 1.15%, to 33618.88, marking its largest daily decline since March. The Dow Jones index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The Standard&Poor's 500 index fell 1.47% to 4273.53, its first drop below 4300 points since June 9th. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.57% to 13063.61.
On Tuesday (September 26th), European stock markets fell for the fourth consecutive trading day due to negative sentiment enveloping global stock markets. The Pan European Stoxx 600 Index closed down 2.64 points, or 0.59%, at 447.80 points; The German DAX30 index closed down 152.29 points, or 0.99%, at 15253.20 points; The FTSE 100 Index closed down 0.31 points, or 0.00%, at 7623.68; The French CAC40 index closed down 49.57 points, or 0.70%, at 7074.31; The European Stoxx 50 Index closed down 38.82 points, or 0.93%, at 4128.55; The Spanish IBEX35 index closed down 15.66 points, or 0.17%, at 9370.34 points; The Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 276.19 points, or 0.97%, at 28106.00. Most sectors of the Pan European Stoxx 600 index fell. Technology stocks experienced the largest decline, falling 2%, while automotive stocks fell 1.2%.
commodity market
On Tuesday (September 26), in the face of continuous pressure from the strengthening of the US dollar and the rising yield of treasury bond bonds, as well as the expectation of interest rate increase, gold prices again faced bearish pressure, and spot gold fell to the lowest point since August 25. Spot gold prices closed down $15.15 per ounce (or 0.70%) at $1900.44 per ounce. COMEX October gold futures closed 0.86% lower at $1901.60 per ounce. COMEX December gold futures closed 0.87% lower at $1919.80 per ounce. COMEX October silver futures closed 1.62% lower at $22.971 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures closed 0.80% lower at $23.196 per ounce.
On Tuesday (September 26th), expectations of tightening crude oil supply and uncertain economic prospects raised demand concerns. At the same time, crude oil continues to be hit by the dual impact of the appreciation of the US dollar and the expectation of interest rate hikes, and the impact of rapid tightening of supply is offset by the long-term low risk preference of market investors for higher interest rates. WTI November crude oil futures rose 0.71 US dollars per barrel, or 0.79%, to close at 90.39 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.58 US dollars per barrel, or 0.63%, at 92.44 US dollars per barrel.
Focus on Wednesday (September 27th):
① 09:30 Australia's August non seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate
② 14:00 German October Gfk Consumer Confidence Index
③ 16:00 Swiss September ZEW Investor Confidence Index
④ 20:30 Monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in August
⑤ 22:30 EIA crude oil inventory for the week from the United States to September 22, and EIA strategic oil reserve inventory for the week from the United States to September 22
